14-Time Champions Bidding to Reach UCL Quarter-Finals at Expense of German Outsiders

    Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig - 06/03/2024

    14-Time Champions Bidding to Reach UCL Quarter-Finals at Expense of German Outsiders
    Vitalii Vitleo / Shutterstock.com
    05/03/24 6014

    Real Madrid carry a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 showdown with RB Leipzig at the Bernabeu on Wednesday.

    A fortnight ago, Brahim Diaz scored the only goal of the first leg in Germany, setting up a winner-takes-all clash in the Spanish capital.

    We have used mathematics, statistics and trends to predict the outcome of Wednesday’s match, so keep reading this preview to discover what Forebet’s AI algorithm expects.

    Real Madrid came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Valencia on Saturday, although Jude Bellingham was sent off in the 100th minute after protesting a controversial refereeing decision.

    Still, Los Blancos have avoided defeat in each of their last nine matches across all competitions, with a solitary loss coming in their previous 31 outings.

    It is also worth noting that Real Madrid have won each of their seven Champions League games this season, scoring 17 goals along the way (2.4 goals per game).

    Not only have Carlo Ancelotti’s men scored eight goals in three UCL home games this term (2.7 goals per game), but they have also kept two clean sheets.

    As for RB Leipzig, they prepared for the second leg with a 4-1 victory over Bochum on Saturday, scoring three goals in the space of four second-half minutes.

    That said, the Red Bulls have been wildly inconsistent of late, recording three wins, two draws and five losses in their last 10 matches across all competitions.

    Leipzig won four of their six Champions League group games to finish second in Group G, although they suffered two high-scoring defeats against Manchester City.

    Having conceded seven goals in three UCL away outings this season (2.3 goals against per game), the German outfit will struggle to keep Real Madrid quiet.

    Head-to-head: Real Madrid and RB Leipzig have faced each other on three occasions in the Champions League, with Los Blancos winning twice and the Red Bulls winning once.

    Last season, Real Madrid claimed a 2-0 home victory over Leipzig during the group stage, although the Germans won the reverse fixture 3-2.

    Team news: Real Madrid will be without the injured trio of Thibaut Courtois (knee), David Alaba (knee) and Eder Militao (knee) for the second leg.

    RB Leipzig, on the other hand, will be without injured defender Lukas Klostermann (hip), while young defender Mohamed Simakan is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

    Given that Real Madrid have yet to taste defeat on home soil this season, Leipzig will struggle to turn the tide on Wednesday.

    Forebet predicts that Real Madrid will score over 2.5 goals on their way to winning the second leg, booking their place in the quarter-finals once again.

    Home team
    Away team
    Probability %
    1X2
    Pred
    Correct score
    Avg. goals
    Weather conditions
    Coef.
    Score
    Live
    coef.
    UCL
    503020
    13-1
    3 - 1
    3.16
    12°
    1.55
    1.55 4.50 5.00 no no no
    FT
    1 - 1(0 - 0)
    -
    - - -

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    {"3":"March 2024","4":"April 2024","5":"May 2024"}
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