Gambia know that another three points on Thursday evening against bottom nation, Angola, would see the hosts take a big step towards sealing their place in the Africa Cup of Nations finals tournament as they look to build upon their current top spot in Group D.
Gambia are top by virtue of a better goal difference over 2nd placed Gabon, whom they lost to in mid-November of last year but the hosts quickly avenged that 2-1 defeat at the Stade de Franceville.
When they played the return fixture a few days later at their Independence Stadium in Bakau, winning by the same 2-1 margin.
The hosts had earlier started their Group D qualifying campaign with a 3-1 win away from home at Thursday’s opponents, Angola, and then took another point in a 2-2 draw at home with Congo DR and although they lost to Gabon, they quickly returned the favour to go top of the group.
Five of Gambia’s last nine home qualifiers have resulted in under 2.5 goals.
Gambia have now won three of their last four Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers at home and with forwards, Modou and Musa Barrow up front, the hosts look set to add another victory here.
By contrast, Angola sit bottom of Group D with just one point to their name after the first four matches in this group phase which was thanks to a 0-0 draw away from home at Congo DR, but three defeats in their other matches have ensured a miserable campaign for the visitors.
Defeats at home to Thursday evening’s hosts, Gambia, and also Congo DR in a 1-0 loss along with a 2-1 loss away from home at Gabon have all but dashed any hopes of Angola making it through to the Africa Cup of Nations finals.
The bigger picture shows that Angola have managed to collect just four wins out of their last 15 qualifying matches, three of which have been achieved on home soil at their Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA, while on the road, Angola have recorded just one win out of their previous 12 matches.
That solitary win was at Botswana but this poor sequence of results on their travels also include seven defeats and failing to score in five of these matches as well, while seven of Angola’s last 12 away matches have also resulted in under 2.5 goals.
This could be a low-scoring game with Gambia securing a narrow win.