In this preview, Forebet covers all the key stats, trends and analysis ahead of Monday’s hugely important Group B clash in Leipzig.
With one group game remaining, second-placed Italy sit two points clear of fourth-placed Croatia, although both sides can still reach the last 16.
Can Croatia leapfrog the Italians with a win? Or will the reigning champions take another step towards defending their crown? Read on to find out what our AI algorithm predicts.
"We have to go all in. It's not the first time for #Croatia, and we'll believe until the end, as we did before. Italy is probably the best team in the group, but we'll give all that we have. Hopefully, that will be enough to progress"🔊 Andrej Kramarić#EURO2024 #Vatreni❤️🔥 pic.twitter.com/77k0dcTrDl— HNS (@HNS_CFF) June 20, 2024
"We have to go all in. It's not the first time for #Croatia, and we'll believe until the end, as we did before. Italy is probably the best team in the group, but we'll give all that we have. Hopefully, that will be enough to progress"🔊 Andrej Kramarić#EURO2024 #Vatreni❤️🔥 pic.twitter.com/77k0dcTrDl
Croatia suffered a 3-0 defeat to Spain in their opening match, despite enjoying the lion’s share of possession while registering 16 shots to La Roja’s 11.
On Wednesday, the Croatians racked up 67% possession and 22 shots against Albania, only two draw 2-2 with the Group B minnows in Hamburg.
Croatia came from behind to lead Albania 2-1, with goals in the 74th and 76th minute, but they ended up conceding to Klaus Gjasula in the fifth minute of stoppage time.
Consequently, the runners-up at the 2018 World Cup must now beat Italy to book their place in the last 16, having flattered to deceive up to now.
As for the Italians, they kicked off their campaign with a 2-1 victory over Albania, racking up 69% possession and 17 shots last weekend.
However, the Euro 2020 champions managed to register a solitary attempt on target as they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Spain on Thursday.
Italy conceded 58% possession and 20 shots against the Spaniards, suggesting that they have weaknesses at both ends of the pitch.
While the Italians could advance to the knockout phase with a draw, they could also be eliminated from the tournament if they lose on Monday.
Head-to-head: Interestingly, the past three meetings between Croatia and Italy ended in a draw, with five draws coming in their previous seven encounters.
Italy’s first and only victory over Croatia came back in 1942. Since then, Croatia have recorded three wins and five draws, with only two of those clashes producing over 2.5 goals.
Team news: Croatia are expected to stick with a 4-3-3 formation, with the iconic trio of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic and Marcelo Brozovic in midfield.
Italy manager Luciano Spalletti may be tempted to alter his lineup after Thursday’s loss, with the likes of Giacomo Raspadori, Mateo Retegui and Mattia Zaccagni pushing for starts.
With both sides looking to reach the knockout phase, Monday’s showdown will likely be a tense and cagey encounter.
Forebet predicts that Croatia and Italy will play out a low-scoring draw, with both teams netting under 1.5 goals.