Forebet’s football predictions continue to delve into the mathematics behind the beautiful game, utilising stats, trends and artificial intelligence.
On Friday night, our attention turns to the top end of Ligue 1, as fourth-placed Lille welcome seventh-placed Marseille to Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Trailing second-placed Brest by four points, the hosts find themselves seven points clear of the visitors. Continue reading to discover what Forebet’s algorithm predicts.
🔜 #LOSCOM 🛠⚽️ pic.twitter.com/jytO6bwnIG— Olympique de Marseille (@OM_Officiel) April 2, 2024
🔜 #LOSCOM 🛠⚽️ pic.twitter.com/jytO6bwnIG
Lille secured a 2-1 victory over Lens last weekend, courtesy of a brace from Edon Zhegrova, who has now bagged five goals and five assists in the league this season.
That result extended LOSC’s unbeaten run in Ligue 1 to four matches, with two wins and two draws coming since their last loss.
Across all competitions, Lille have avoided defeat in each of their previous six games, notching three wins and three draws while reaching the Europa Conference League quarter-finals.
It is also worth noting that LOSC have avoided defeat in each of their last 14 home games, suffering a solitary defeat at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term.
Meanwhile, Marseille suffered a 2-0 defeat against Paris Saint-Germain last time out, despite racking up 22 shots against the perennial champions on home soil.
OM also endured a 2-0 defeat against Rennes before the international break, meaning they head into Friday’s showdown on a two-match losing run.
There is no hiding the fact that Marseille have struggled on the road of late, as they have lost five of their last seven away games, winning just once in the process.
To make matters worse for OM, they have won only two of their 13 away league outings this term, losing seven of the previous 11 on their travels.
Head-to-head: Lille have lost just one of their last seven Ligue 1 meetings with Marseille, claiming three home victories in this fixture since 2021.
When you look at the bigger picture, OM have managed to win just three of their previous 11 league matches against LOSC, with only one of those victories coming at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Team news: Lille look set to be without the injured quintet of Rafael Fernandes, Angel Gomes, Samuel Umtiti, Andrej Ilic and Tiago Morais for the foreseeable future.
Marseille also have five injury absentees at the moment, with Michael Murillo, Bilal Nadir, Simon Ngapandouetnbu, Valentin Rongier and Pedro Ruiz on the sidelines.
When you couple Lille’s impressive home form with Marseille’s poor recent record in this fixture, all the signs point towards a LOSC win on Friday night.
Forebet’s predictive analytics model expects Lille to score over 2.5 goals on their way to victory over Marseille, who look set to suffer a third successive defeat in Ligue 1.