Love it or hate it, the expected goals (xG) metric is here to say. As we head towards the conclusion of the 2022-23 season, let’s take a look at which Premier League players have the highest xG.
Put simply, xG measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored. A penalty is valued at roughly 0.76 xG, while a more difficult chance will have a lower value.
Fulham have enjoyed an impressive return to the Premier League after blitzing the Championship last season – and Aleksandar Mitrovic has played a key role in helping the Cottagers adapt.
Although the Serbian striker has scored 11 goals in 21 league appearances this term, he is actually underperforming his xG of 12.3. However, that could change between now and the end of the campaign.
Another player who is underperforming his xG is Mohamed Salah. The Liverpool forward has put up 15.2 xG this season, but he has only managed to score 13 goals in 29 matches.
Although Salah has netted five goals across his last six league outings, he has also missed two penalties in his previous four appearances, which explains his xG underperformance.
Meanwhile, Harry Kane is overperforming his xG by a considerable margin. The Tottenham Hotspur striker has amassed 17.1 xG this season but has scored 23 goals in 30 games.
Not only has Kane scored five goals in his last four appearances, but he has also scored eight in his previous ten. Needless to say, Kane is invariably in the right place at the right time.
Only two players have scored more Premier League goals than Brentford’s Ivan Toney this term, as the 27-year-old has netted 18 goals in 28 matches to cement his status as one of the division’s deadliest marksmen.
Funnily enough, Toney’s xG stands at 17.7, meaning there is very little disparity between his xG and the number of goals he has scored. It is also worth noting that Toney has taken more penalties than any other player.
You probably won’t be surprised to see Erling Haaland occupying the top spot on this list. After all, the prolific Norwegian has taken the Premier League by storm this season, bagging 30 goals in 27 matches.
Remarkably, Haaland has scored 30 goals from an xG of 21.1, highlighting his efficiency in front of goal. With four braces and four hat-tricks under his belt, Haaland will surely continue to overperform his xG.