The Europa Conference League served up a big surprise last week, as the tournament favourites suffered a shock defeat in their semi-final first leg.
Aston Villa were beaten 4-2 by Greek club Olympiacos, meaning the Premier League side have a sizeable deficit to overturn in Piraeus on Thursday.
In this preview, we cover all the key stats and trends ahead of the second leg. Continue reading to discover the outcome of Forebet’s predictive analytics model.
🔴⚪🥅 Τα γκολ της 𝝝𝝦𝝪𝝠𝝞𝝟𝝜𝝨 βραδιάς κόντρα στην Άστον Βίλα!Ελ Κααμπί ⚽️⚽️⚽️Έσε ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/0F5pjMMSEF— Olympiacos FC (@olympiacosfc) May 4, 2024
🔴⚪🥅 Τα γκολ της 𝝝𝝦𝝪𝝠𝝞𝝟𝝜𝝨 βραδιάς κόντρα στην Άστον Βίλα!Ελ Κααμπί ⚽️⚽️⚽️Έσε ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/0F5pjMMSEF
Despite seeing just 34% possession while conceding 17 shots, Olympiacos secured a memorable victory in England, with Ayoub El Kaabi netting a hat-trick.
That result means that Olympiacos head into the second leg on an eight-game unbeaten streak, having picked up seven wins and one draw since their last loss.
In the Europa Conference League, the Greek side have won five of their seven matches this season, scoring 16 goals (2.3 goals per game).
It is also worth noting that Olympiacos have won nine of their last 11 home games across all competitions, scoring 27 goals (2.5 goals per game).
As for Aston Villa, they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday, meaning they head into the second leg on a three-game winless run.
Still, Unai Emery’s side have lost only two of their 13 Conference League matches this season, racking up nine wins and 29 goals (2.2 goals per game).
It is also worth pointing out that Aston Villa have lost just one of their six away games in the Conference League this term, netting 13 goals (2.2 goals per game).
That said, Villa have lost three of their previous four away outings across all competitions, so they will need to improve if they are to reach the final.
Head-to-head: Aston Villa and Olympiacos met for the first time last week, meaning the Greek club have the upper hand in the H2H statistics.
Although the Villains dominated the first leg – racking up 66% possession and 17 shots – Olympiacos showed great resilience to come away with a win.
Team news: The hosts are expected to stick with a 4-2-3-1 formation for the second leg, with hat-trick hero Ayoub El Kaabi leading the line once again.
As for Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers, Jacob Ramsey, Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendia and Boubacar Kamara are injured. Emi Martinez, Youri Tielemans and Nicolo Zaniolo are doubts.
Regardless of Olympiacos’ spirited display in England, the Premier League side are expected to flex their muscles on Thursday.
Forebet predicts that Aston Villa will score over 2.5 goals on their way to defeating Olympiacos, sending the contest into extra time.