Poland can win Nations League A Group 1 on Sunday with a victory over Italy. The Polish national team are shock leaders of Group 1 with seven points from 12 possible. Italy are chasing Poland and sit one point behind them.
Italy must win or draw against Poland to prevent the group from being decided on Sunday. If the Azzurri can win, they will go top of the group. Italy would still need a win on the final day of the group stage against Bosnia to ensure they make the playoffs.
The hard work never stops 💪🏃♂️#Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/DJPxwK9BKE— Italy ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ (@azzurri) November 12, 2020
The hard work never stops 💪🏃♂️#Azzurri #VivoAzzurro pic.twitter.com/DJPxwK9BKE
When these teams met on matchday 3 in Group 1, the score ended deadlocked at nil-nil. Poland were poor in attack against Italy in their first meeting claiming just 39% possession and three shots. Just two of those shots landed on target.
Italy dominated possession but did nothing with it. Poland were able to weather waves of attack as Italy compiled 16 shots. Just two of those shots landed on target as the team couldn’t find their shooting boots in Gdansk.
Compared to their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign, Italy have not been proficient in the final third. They have scored just three goals in four games. The Azzurri have allowed a mere two goals and have taken points thanks to strong defending.
Poland have played well defensively, just as Italy have. Only two goals have been conceded by Poland while five goals have been tallied. Robert Lewandowski has two of those five goals, and those were scored on matchday 4 versus Bosnia.
Both teams are coming off of wins in midweek in international friendly games. Italy smashed Estonia 4-0 as Vincenzo Grifo scored a brace. Federico Bernardeschi and Riccardo Orsolini also added goals.
Poland eased to a 2-0 win versus Ukraine in what was a more difficult match on paper. Krzysztof Piatek and Jakub Moder scored on either side of halftime.
Italy have to avoid defeat against Poland on Sunday to have a chance of making the playoffs. Roberto Mancini’s team should grab a draw versus Poland in yet another low-scoring game in Group 1.
Poland have seen two of their four games in the Nations League finish with under 2.5 goals scored. All four of Italy’s games thus far ended with under 2.5 goals scored.
Italy and Poland should both find the back of the net in a cagey draw. The game should finish with under 2.5 goals scored as Italy keep hope of progression alive.