Liverpool’s kryptonite in the Champions League this season has been playing away from Anfield.
Jurgen Klopp’s team failed to win any of their three group stage games while being outscored 5-1 by their opponents. Now, Liverpool must go to Germany to play a rampant Bayern Munich.
Niko Kovac’s team won 6-0 against Wolfsburg at the weekend in preparation for Liverpool. Bayern are back on top of the Bundesliga due goal difference.
Bayern München have one big overlooked advantage for Wednesday night’s game. It isn’t just that they are playing at the Allianz. Bayern kicked off their weekend fixture on Saturday at 13:30 UK time. Liverpool began their Premier League fixture against Burnley – which they won 4-2 – a day later at 12:00 UK time. The subtle difference gave Bayern nearly 24-hours of additional rest ahead of the Champions League fixture
The first leg’s nil-nil draw at Anfield was a good result for Liverpool. On paper, the Reds simply need to get an away goal to go through to the quarterfinals. In addition, a score draw will send Liverpool to the last eight. Liverpool’s problem in the group stage was an inability to score goals on the road, however. A James Milner penalty against Paris Saint-Germain away was the only road goal Liverpool scored.
Injuries could play a big part in the second leg. Bayern players David Alaba and Kingsley Coman both trained on Monday and should be in the team. Kovac will be without his first-choice right-back Joshua Kimmich as the defender is suspended for the second leg. Forward Thomas Muller is also suspended while Arjen Robben and Corentin Tolisso are sidelined with injury.
Liverpool’s biggest injury worries are midfielder James Milner and right-back Trent Alexander-Arnold. The Liverpool No. 7 sat out their weekend win over Burnley. Alexander-Arnold would be a bigger miss. He came off during the Reds’ win. Missing both players could be catastrophic as Milner is currently the back-up right-back. A last-minute decision will be made on both players. Dejan Lovren was on Liverpool’s bench on Sunday. He hasn’t played since January 7th. Lovren would have only featured in case of an emergency as he is not 100 percent fit.
The Reds’ away record in the Champions League is a major worry. In their last five Champions League games away from Anfied (including last season’s final), they have lost. Liverpool were outscored 12-4 in those five away fixtures.
Bayern have hit form under Kovac in the last three months. Robert Lewandowski is in fine form once more and Bayern’s attack is thriving. Since returning from the German winter break, Bayern have played 10 matches in all competitions allowing 10 goals. During that same timespan, Bayern have scored 31 times.
The Champions League last-16 second leg match between Bayern and Liverpool will see goals. But Liverpool’s Champions League road troubles will doom the Reds, however. Bayern will edge Liverpool in a tight affair that sees both clubs score. Bayern will win with over 2.5 goals scored in the game.