Derby clash with Fulham on Friday night in the first-leg of their Championship promotion playoff series. Fulham go into the tie following a disappointing final day of the regular season.
The Cottagers lost 3-1 to Birmingham City while promotion rivals Cardiff could only draw with Reading. Fulham could have gained automatic promotion with a win, but now Slavisa Jokanovic's side must put that disappointment behind it to win three matches and gain promotion through the playoffs.
Sportsbooks around the globe have already installed Fulham as the favourites to win the promotion playoffs. The club have been in great form and Fulham's final day loss was their first since December. It was a run of 23 matches unbeaten for Jokanovic's team.
There is some bad news for Fulham, however. Research shows that clubs with the best form and most points actually don't do well in the playoffs. For example, last season, Huddersfield achieved a negative goal difference yet won promotion to the Premier League. In 2007, Derby gained promotion although the club won just six times in their last 15 matches. Derby have just got into the playoffs this term, and thanks to going undefeated in their last three games, the club was able to hold off Preston.
Fulham led the Championship in possession during the regular season with a 57.6% rate. The club also recorded the best percentage for passing at 82.9% and was third in the league in shots per game at 14. The Cottagers scored the second most goals behind league winners Wolverhampton Wanderers with 79. However, the problem is Fulham could go into Friday night's fixture mentally defeated.
After being so good for half the season and missing out on the playoffs, it is questionable which side will show up on the night? Will it be the team that played sexy football for 23 straight games or the side that lost to Birmingham?
Derby were unable to defeat Fulham during the regular season. The sides drew their first meeting at Craven Cottage before Fulham defeated Derby at Pride Park, 2-1, in March. Derby have only just come back from a spell in which manager Gary Rowett was struggling to find first team players.
The injury bug had hit the Rams hard, but now, things have improved. Like the Derby team in 2007, Rowett's side finished the season in bad shape. Only five times in 19 matches did Derby manage a win. History could repeat itself with Derby winning the promotion playoffs despite their poor end to the season.
Friday night's first-leg semifinal will see the teams end level. With so much to play for in the fixture, the clubs will play tense and mistakes could happen.